Another Fed rate increase in December, following on the recent 75 bps increases, which have probably yet to have a full impact on the economy, may be sufficient to establish a different pace of growth – and a different, lower outlook for inflation—as soon as the first quarter of 2023. Numerous layoffs have been announced of late, primarily in the tech sector but also, quietly, in finance, law and other business services being affected by a global slowdown in business activity, and it is likely that these layoffs will have an increasingly negative influence on consumer spending. Global markets appreciated in October on hopes that policy makers were finally changing course and a slowdown to the historically large rate hikes was in sight. However, we do not expect October’s extreme strength to persist as broad-based, sticky inflation, a hawkish Fed, slowing growth, continued rate hikes, challenging Treasury and fixed income liquidity conditions and geopolitical considerations continue to pose risks to price levels and credit spreads. Overall, equity markets have never bottomed before a recession has begun. However, equity markets tend to be forward looking and rebound before a recession ends. We believe that means there is more equity market volatility to come. On the wealth planning front, we discuss the recent spotlight on cryptocurrencies, largely driven by the collapse of a popular exchange called FTX. Cryptocurrency holders and sellers however may take comfort in the fact that there are likely tax savings opportunities available to them.
Click Here to Read the November 21, 2022, Economic Commentary
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