Later this week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first (of three) estimate of fourth quarter US GDP. The data leading up to this announcement has been relatively clear in signaling that the top-line growth rate is in the range of 2.5-3%. At present, it seems unlikely that any of the data being released this week will move the Fed away from another increase in the Fed Funds rate, however, the data may serve to confirm what has already been signaled by a number of Fed Presidents: a 25bps increase on Feb. 1 instead of the 50bps taken in December. After a strong start to the year, markets took a breath last week as recession fears continued to mount. Wednesday saw the biggest risk-off move so far in 2023, with equities slumping and sovereign bonds rallying after the latest US data magnified recession concerns and raised the prospect the Fed wouldn’t be as aggressive with their rate hikes as expected. On the wealth planning front, California, New York, Illinois, Hawaii, Maryland, Minnesota, Washington, and Connecticut introduced wealth tax bills last week in a coordinated effort to address what progressive Democrats view as historic levels of American economic inequality.
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