Inflation messages will be everywhere this week, even though the actual numbers for the first quarter are behind us. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a variable that the Federal Reserve and others have traditionally watched closely; the ECI for the final quarter of 2023 had been unusually soft, one of the factors supporting hopes for a rapid inflation deceleration. Sustained equity bear markets typically coincide with contracting corporate profits. During the period Q4 2022- Q1 2023, the S&P experienced an “earnings recession” with two consecutive quarters of negative year-over-year earnings growth. On the wealth planning front, we discuss the rapidly rising costs of homeownership.
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