Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Federal Reserve conference was what it needed to be: a clear statement about the impending changes in monetary policy. The hope for a 50-bps cut in the Fed Funds rate in September ignores the recognized manner in which the Fed historically changes monetary policy. Just as the Fed prefers to raise rates 25 bps at every meeting, not all at once, it prefers to lower rates gradually and steadily. After the speech, the S&P 500 Index moved back toward record highs. The gains were also broad-based, with small-caps outperforming large-caps and an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index outpacing the capitalization-weighted index. The full-year 2024 earnings forecast for the S&P 500 is anticipated to be just 10%+. This week, in wealth planning, we talk about parents’ dilemmas: saving for college or retirement.
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