October Recap: Monthly Roundup
Executive Summary Markets extended their rally in October, rising for a sixth straight month and hitting new highs despite weakening breadth. Parallels to the late 1990s, marked by narrow leadership, expensive valuations, and transformative tech, continue to fuel debate of a bubble. While today’s AI leaders are fundamentally stronger than their dot-com era peers, questions […]
S&P Gains Mask Underlying Market Exhaustion
Executive Summary Last week, large-capitalization S&P 500 stocks advanced 0.7%, but small stocks lagged. The three material items for the week included broadly positive big tech earnings, the Fed meeting featuring an expected 25 basis point (bps) cut, and the end of quantitative tightening[1] as of 12/1/25, along with a warning that another cut in […]
Investment Commentary – October 27, 2025
Executive Summary Investors are gearing up for a pivotal week, as Big Tech earnings and an expected U.S. interest rate cut could set the country’s economic trajectory for the rest of the year. A cooler than expected inflation report on Friday sent stocks to fresh highs as traders bet the Federal Reserve will trim the cost of borrowing […]
Investment Commentary – October 20, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned 1.1% for the week amid continued optimism around AI, a strong start to the earnings season, from large banks, and increasing hopes for further rate cuts from the Fed. Markets looked past trade tensions with China and emerging credit issues at regional banks as Fed Chair Powell signaled that the […]
Investment Commentary – October 13, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, stocks declined while bonds appreciated (price up / yield down). The MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI EAFE indices outperformed the S&P 500. Across U.S. Russell style & market cap indices, mid-cap growth did the best, but the low volatility factor led more broadly. As for fixed income, the 10-year. treasury yield […]
Investment Commentary – October 6, 2025
Executive Summary Equity Markets Risk On Last week, global equity funds experienced the best week of inflows in nearly a year, led by U.S. technology and financial stocks. The third quarter was strong across both risk- and risk-control portfolios, with global equities gaining over 8%. In the U.S., small caps gained over 12% for the […]
September Recap: Third Quarter 2025 Executive Summary
Equity Markets Risk On Equity Markets carried their strong momentum from Q2 into Q3, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and small-cap stocks each hitting new highs. Investor sentiment remained optimistic despite soft labor market data and mixed economic signals, and stocks traded higher due to strong corporate earnings, the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward rate cuts, […]
Investment Commentary – September 29, 2025
Executive Summary The economy appears to remain resilient, and the Fed is cutting rates in the middle of an economy that is slowing but still expanding. Historically, such conditions have been bullish for risk assets. According to Franklin Templeton, in the last 50 years, there have been eight instances where the Fed resumed cutting interest […]
U.S. Government Shutdowns and Risk Markets
US Federal Government Shutdowns Some of the federal government’s activities are set to shut down if Congress cannot agree to fund them by October 1, 2025 What is a government shutdown? A shutdown occurs when non-essential federal government activities close temporarily because Congress has not approved funding to keep them open. There have been 10 […]
Investment Commentary – September 22, 2025
Executive Summary The Fed cut interest rates as expected by 0.25% to 4.25%. The market response was bullish for riskier assets but did not do much for bonds. The bond market was pricing in 3 cuts before year-end, prior to the meeting, and three after, then into next year, the bond market is pricing in […]
Corporate Bond Trade-Offs: Attractive Income, Limited Cushion
September 17, 2025 – Corporate credit spreads are at levels not seen in decades. Investment-grade credit spreads, which measure how much more a top-rated company pays to borrow compared to the U.S. government, have fallen to 0.77%, a level last seen in 1998 (Figure 1). Historically, the spread is closer to 1.30%, a half percentage […]
Investment Commentary – September 8, 2025
Executive Summary Financial markets have weathered months of policy-driven volatility, and after a nearly 20% decline, the S&P 500 has regained all its losses and set numerous all-time highs. What remains is a sharply higher effective tariff rate and uncertainty about the impact of 2026 corporate earnings, consumer demand, and economic growth. While easing tensions […]