April 26, 2021
Good morning,
It’s a fairly big week ahead for markets with a Fed meeting and a slew of bellwether corporate earnings releases. However, it’s a very quiet start to the week with equities little changed and yields nudging ever so slightly higher as the dollar tries to find a direction to stick with this morning. Durable goods data was released earlier this morning, they are usually messy (inconsistent top-line vs sub-data) and March was no exception. The top-line number missed but the market is apparently unphased – no surprise there.
The past two notes have highlighted elevated volatility, and this morning’s note makes three in a row, although I’ll spare you the verbiage. Last week, for all the action recorded in both directions, up and down, almost all the major indexes ended the week virtually unchanged (S&P 500, for example, was off 0.11%). If stomach churn is the price to pay for market churn and market churn is this zero-interest-rate market’s version of a correction, then that is a very modest price to pay, indeed. No change in view from here otherwise.