June 1, 2021
Good morning,
Welcome back, I hope you all had a nice holiday weekend.
Last week was the first up week in three (+1.16% on the S&P 500) and accounted for all of the month’s gains (+0.70% for May). We look to enter June this morning picking up where May left off – at least at today’s open. Futures are up half a percent across the board as I type. Recall the market characteristics of a bull in its second year – more and deeper corrections, with a choppier and less positively sloped overall march upward. May fit that mold perfectly, there are no obvious signs yet that June will deviate from that same pattern.
It might be a holiday-shortened week, but it should prove to be an eventful one, especially with payroll data coming on Friday. By this point everyone pretty much understands that the Fed’s Average Inflation Targeting framework provides cover for them to wait for the labor market to jump through the desired hoops, though it remains an open question as to whether that will happen with the May data (Fri) given the possibility of ongoing distortions from the enhanced unemployment benefits.
See you Thursday this week due to the holiday and hopefully we’ll see the new, new and improved MN format – fingers crossed.
Be well,
Mike