June 28, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are quiet leading into the open this morning, and that theme may last all week. Month/quarter end comes Wednesday but rebalancing flows should be relatively modest. Friday sees the release of June’s payroll figures and while recent monthly figures have looked like something out of a random number generator, investors will search for signs of progress toward full employment. That is, investors who are around Friday. With temperatures soaring in the northeast, right before the three day weekend, the whole week may have a summer holiday feel to it.
The Cycles chart here on Friday was disconcerting to a few readers. Let me use this opportunity to remind you of ground zero of the Technical Quantitative market research methodology – the best forecaster of market action is usually the action of the market itself. The Tape, using the indicator below, remains mildly bullish. I hope this soothes some concerns that may have come up from Friday’s chart … for now.
Be well,
Mike