July 16, 2021
Good morning,
June’s Retail Sales numbers came in this morning, headlining at +0.6% vs -0.3% expected. Put another log on the bull market fire, and let the grind higher in equity prices continue.
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Your fully invested Bear reviewed the mid-month Technical/Quantitative Models last night trying to peak around the corner of what might be coming. I walked away whistling past the graveyard thinking … hmmm, there is probably more life ahead for this bull market.
The models are about as decisive as they can be. Recall that the T/Q methodology is full circle in its approach, combining Macro (think eco growth, rates, inflation, +), Fundamental (think earnings, profit margins, +), Technical (think price change, momentum, +) and Behavioral (think sentiment, emotion, +) analytical methodologies together.
From NDR: … trying to sort out, what the extreme model readings are telling us is that the improving global economic outlook (2% recession probability model) is keeping the macro environment conducive to equity strength (100% stock/ bond composite externals) and rallying commodities (96% commodity model and 100% internals). Yet the economic momentum hasn’t raised inflation expectations to such an extent that a bond downtrend would develop, as instead we’ve seen bonds outperform (100% bond/cash composite internals).
Looking for some summer reading? Hat tip of appreciation to our marketing team increasing our digital presence to better square with our capabilities. Is there anything more inspirational than reading about sheer genius? I do highly recommend these: https://go.rscapital.com/e/889203/-by-financial-advisers-image-7/d976pc/60737506?h=G2kXvuE-H-qe8IIdCQx985WlS4dv5XfciVTWVAdFoMo
Be well,
Mike