February 25, 2022
Good morning,
Following a fairly historic reversal yesterday — the S&P 500, for example, started the day down -2.6%, and then at mid-day rallied +4.2%, to close the session up +1.5% overall — can we assume the invasion is now in the market’s rear-view mirror? I doubt it, but I do think the waterfall declines have ended unless Putin’s land grab has not.
The market should continue to discount what became clear yesterday – the scope of Putin’s intentions concerning the Ukraine and the west’s sanctions in response. As more of the emotional over-reaction selling that accompanies big, geopolitical unknowns – like we’ve had the past few weeks – is recouped, markets should recover back closer to pre-Ukraine-border-buildup levels.
Unfortunately, the skies are not clear blue for markets following yesterday’s very dark day. There is still global inflation – not mutually exclusive from yesterday’s sanctions – and the central bank’s response to it as they all end the easing measures put in place during the pandemic.
Let’s get through the day, end a very challenging week, and deal with the macro-economic picture on Monday. <Deep Sigh> Have a great weekend.
Be well,
Mike
Important Note – Our Investment Office’s Commentary on the Ukraine-Russia Crisis is here. A very worthwhile read.
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