March 16, 2022
Good morning,
Sorry this is so late – remote digital connectivity while traveling can still be a bumpy road.
As a well anticipated Fed day begins, markets are looking at what must appear to be a mirage to traders – an up market for the 2nd day in a row (its been over a month). Futures are up a percent following the same gain yesterday.
There is optimism over Ukraine talks, crude has fallen below $100 (from a high of $130), China is up big as prices there apparently hit the Xi-put level (China’s version of our own Fed put – turn on the spigots). The sense of relief is palpable but fragile.
The market is deeply oversold and I suspect a relief rally of sorts will develop that will relieve that condition. However, the damage done to the cyclical bull market since the beginning of the year appears irreparable. Once the oversold condition of the market is relieved, I believe a defensive move in taxable portfolios is in store. Non-taxable portfolios in the faster moving TQM-IRA model have been de-risked since December, but the taxable consequences that model would put on taxable accounts is overwhelming.
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See here, the latest commentary from Stuart Katz (our Chief Investment Officer) – always a worthwhile read.
Be well,
Mike