May 11, 2022
Good morning,
Futures are up over a percent this morning perhaps front running some key inflation data (CPI) released at 8:30am EDT this morning. The market is indeed oversold but not yet as oversold as it was in March when we got an 11+% snapback rally. Could today’s CPI number be a good excuse for an overdue rally – of course. Could today’s CPI number set the bottom of this year’s sell-off, launching a recovery rally for the stock and bond markets – doubtful.
The prognosis remains the same here – weak, volatile tape ahead and maybe all summer. Likely recovery into Q4. Perhaps we’ll experience the positive side of the volatility coin today. That’s always nice, I just don’t think it will be lasting.
Be well,
Mike