September 2022 Monthly Letter
Central banks around the world are once again acting in concert. The last time, in 2020, it was a coordinated response to the pandemic, with unprecedented capital infusions into their respective economies. Today, without admitting or denying guilt of over-stimulating, they are all working to bring inflation under control, despite the inherent risks to the growth outlook. […]
No Surprise This Morning
October 7, 2022 Good morning, September employment data came in this morning (8:30am EDT) and the report was spot-on expectations for a change. Payrolls for September increased +263k vs +265k expected. It’s the first data test for the rally that began Monday, and the initial market move has Futures off -1%. Remember, initial market moves off any […]
Probabilities
October 5, 2022 Good morning, Last month, September, the S&P 500 Index plummeted -9.3%, the index’s worst monthly performance since March 2020. The first two trading days of this month, October, the S&P 500 Index is up +5.7%, the best two day move for the Index since April 2020. The primary difference between then and […]