October 7, 2022
Good morning,
September employment data came in this morning (8:30am EDT) and the report was spot-on expectations for a change. Payrolls for September increased +263k vs +265k expected. It’s the first data test for the rally that began Monday, and the initial market move has Futures off -1%. Remember, initial market moves off any data release are machine driven (algorithmic trading) and are often over-reactions.
The data this morning should not give markets any reason to expect the Fed to move away from another +75-bps rate hike at the next Fed meeting the first week of November. However, hope springs eternal for the bulls these days and they only have to wait a few days for CPI data next week hoping that data will reflect lower inflation than anticipated.
Below is a reprint of my monthly note attached to client performance reports. Not very inspiring I’m afraid. Hope you have a nice weekend.
Be well,
Mike
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