February 24, 2023 – On February 14, I did a live presentation at the San Mateo Public Library with my co-presenter Matt Lau, CFP® on the topic “The Positive and Negative Path for Markets in 2023”. At that presentation, I shared seven variables to watch for clues of which way the market is leaning this year (and therefore, how you may adjust your portfolio mix accordingly) — rally or continued volatility? Since that day, new information has come out and it is not encouraging:
Released this morning, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measurement of inflation, rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% from the prior year, coming above economists’ expectations of 4.3%. This raises concerns that disinflation is slowing and it increases the probability of continuing Fed rate increases.
The initial jobless claims report released yesterday is still below 200,000 at 192,000. This means a key component of inflation (labor costs) continues to exert pressure on high inflation.
Relatedly, this stronger set of data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter policy stance for longer; in fact, interest rate futures markets have adjusted accordingly and, as of this writing, point to a terminal fed funds rate of 5.5 percent by mid-year 2023, with only a single cut by the end of 2023 (Source: Fannie Mae 02/21/2023).
To register for the upcoming webinar, The Positive and Negative Path for Markets in 2023, click here and feel free to pass along to someone who you think may benefit from this information.
Disclosures
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2023 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
Securities offered through Fortune Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC and Fortune Financial Services, Inc. are separate entities and are not affiliated.
An Update to My Positive/Negative Path of the Market in 2023
February 24, 2023 – On February 14, I did a live presentation at the San Mateo Public Library with my co-presenter Matt Lau, CFP® on the topic “The Positive and Negative Path for Markets in 2023”. At that presentation, I shared seven variables to watch for clues of which way the market is leaning this year (and therefore, how you may adjust your portfolio mix accordingly) — rally or continued volatility? Since that day, new information has come out and it is not encouraging:
Released this morning, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measurement of inflation, rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% from the prior year, coming above economists’ expectations of 4.3%. This raises concerns that disinflation is slowing and it increases the probability of continuing Fed rate increases.
The initial jobless claims report released yesterday is still below 200,000 at 192,000. This means a key component of inflation (labor costs) continues to exert pressure on high inflation.
Relatedly, this stronger set of data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter policy stance for longer; in fact, interest rate futures markets have adjusted accordingly and, as of this writing, point to a terminal fed funds rate of 5.5 percent by mid-year 2023, with only a single cut by the end of 2023 (Source: Fannie Mae 02/21/2023).
To register for the upcoming webinar, The Positive and Negative Path for Markets in 2023, click here and feel free to pass along to someone who you think may benefit from this information.
Disclosures
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2023 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
Securities offered through Fortune Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC and Fortune Financial Services, Inc. are separate entities and are not affiliated.
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