April 12, 2023
Good morning,
This is the big day of the week for market participants; a key inflation data point, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), comes out at 8:30 ET, and the minutes from the last Fed meeting will be disseminated this afternoon. Today will likely go a ways towards dictating which way the Fed moves in three weeks at its next meeting (5/2). As of last night, markets are pricing a nearly 75% chance of a hike next month. A CPI number above expectations will likely push pricing towards near certainty. A lower-than-expected CPI should push pricing back towards unchanged, where it was before last week’s employment data. And if CPI comes in spot-on expectations, we’ll probably have to wait for this afternoon’s minutes as they may well tip the balance should pricing be muddled after the inflation report (CPI).
See you Friday, and hopefully with a better handle on the market’s message following today’s macro data.
Be well,
Mike
Robertson Stephens paid no fee to obtain recognition but has paid licensing fees to reference its appearances on the Newsweek, USA Today, and FA Magazine rankings lists. See Awards Disclosures
