Opposing Forces May Lead to a Grind
January 25, 2024 Good morning, Yesterday’s market action may have been a forerunner of market action for weeks ahead. Treasuries fell (lower price/higher yield) after U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index data surprised to the upside, adding to concern that the economy is too hot for a Federal Reserve rate cut any time soon. Stocks initially rose […]
Where Is It Rallying To?
January 22, 2024 Good morning, Last week’s economic data eased some recession concerns, eased market expectations for March rate cuts, and, on Friday, decoupled the direction of equity prices from the direction of bond prices for the first time in almost 3 months. Bonds were down hard last week, off almost -1%, which is a […]
Correction #2
January 18, 2024 Good morning, In December, we talked about a battle between narratives that is developing early this year. That battle between the bond market investors, pricing in rate cuts at every Fed meeting this year beginning in March, and the Fed, who think the market’s easing schedule is too dramatic, began early this […]
The Fed Pushes Back
January 16, 2024 Good morning, For the first two weeks of the year, stock and bond market prices have moved sideways and traders are still hunting for that elusive 2024 investment theme – apart from the conviction that central banks are going to slash rates. That overarching conviction took a hit over the weekend when […]