February 8, 2024
Good morning,
So far this week, markets have successfully navigated two bond auctions and more Fedspeak without any hesitation. Except for small caps (down -0.63% this week), the rest of the major equity indexes have steadily marched higher, and on average are up another 60 – 70 bps (basis points 1bp=.01%) so far this week. Readers may be thinking – “Hey Mike, what’s up? Where is the choppy market or even a correction you’ve been warning about?”
That’s fair. For the most part, stocks have spent more time on the front face of any wave that the short term technicals have warned of. Is there a backside of a wave that stocks may slide down? Maybe not, emotion and sentiment would say no. However, I live and die with the market message (aka technical indicators).
Following the blistering rally that ended 2023, long term technical indicators are all pinned to the bullish side of their gauges. But January allowed for some breakdown in short-term technical signals. I’ll remain cautious until the weak short-term signals reverse and once again align with the long-term message.
Be well,
Mike
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