March 14, 2024
Good morning,
I must admit that my description of recent market behavior as “sideways” and corrective looks a little specious when the market was setting marginal new highs just two days ago. Momentum has slowed, however. In fact, NDR’s Daily Momentum Model, a reliable short-term indicator (days), flashed a sell-signal this week. This signal fits well with a market narrative suggesting a continuation of its uptrend with modest pullbacks along the way.
Retail Sales and PPI (Producer Price Index) were released moments ago (8:30 am ET). The PPI, like its sibling CPI (Tuesday), reflected stickier inflation once again. Retail Sales were just a tick below expectations – the U.S. consumer continues to purchase. Stock Futures have shrugged off any negative connotation from this morning’s data and remain up ~.30% going into the open. The bond market is virtually unchanged on the data – it reacted to slowing disinflation two days ago and markets do not normally react more than once to the same news.
Be well,
Mike
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