April 11, 2024
Good morning,
“That sound you just heard was the door slamming on a June rate cut by the Fed” – 8:31am. Yesterday’s quote of the day, moments after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline data crossed the tape. The inflation data came in hotter than expected. Bond yields shot higher (up 20+ bps across the curve), Futures tanked. By the end of the day, the S&P 500 Index had declined -0.95%, with the other major indexes falling that much or more. It was a big, volatile day in all markets.
Inflation remains stickier than expected and getting harder to dismiss. In recent weeks, Chair Powell has insisted that the overall disinflation story hasn’t changed. Yesterday’s CPI report does not give policymakers greater confidence in hitting their inflation objective. If you are a data-dependent policymaker on the FOMC, does yesterday’s CPI report give you greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%? Based on its action yesterday, the market is saying, “No, you are going to remain patient.” It looks like the rate path will be higher and longer than markets have been expecting.
Be well,
Mike
Disclosures
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Performance may be compared to several indices. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. A complete list of Robertson Stephens Investment Office recommendations over the previous 12 months is available upon request. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2024 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.