September 9, 2024
Good morning,
September’s first week looks a lot like August’s start – down hard for stocks and yields (which means bonds rallied). The uncomfortable difference, however, is that there is no loosely related global “unwind” like August to blame for all the selling last week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down -4.25% last week, the other major domestic indices were worse (NASDAQ -5.76%, Russell 2000 -5.67%) while international equivalents were down roughly half as much as SPX (EAFE -2.83%, EM -2.24%). Bonds again outperformed stocks by a large margin.
The “de-risking” (a lovely euphemism for selling) that took place in stocks last week was driven by soft labor market data and increased concerns around economic growth, and whether the Fed will be able to orchestrate a soft landing vs a recession. Outside of stock prices, the growth scare is showing up in oil prices (at a 52wk low), U.S. Treasury yields (the 10yr yield dropped to a fresh 52-week low), and Bitcoin (for believers, it is a proxy for risk appetite, and was down ~ 10% on the week)
We start the week with the Fed in its quiet period before the next Fed meeting in 10 days. We have two pieces of inflation data – CPI-Wednesday and PPI-Thursday and outside of that, it may be quiet with everyone waiting for next Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
See you Thursday.
Be well,
Mike
Disclosures
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Performance may be compared to several indices. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. A complete list of Robertson Stephens Investment Office recommendations over the previous 12 months is available upon request. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2024 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.