October 31, 2024
Good morning,
With 5 days left to the closely contested election, no one knows the outcome. The polls are even; stocks and bonds are leaning Red, but Wall Street can get it wrong. There is not much I can write today or Monday that will prove to be of much value. So, I’ll keep these next two Morning Notes short.
The two prevailing trends in stocks and bonds recently will be tested in the next 24 hrs. The corrective pause trend in equities has to digest two earnings announcement disappointments this morning – MSFT and META. Futures are off -.70% premarket. Two more later today with AAPL and AMZN – expectations are set high in both cases.
For bonds, tomorrow’s employment numbers could be the catalyst to stem the tide of rising yields. It is the most important monthly economic data point now in this data-dependent world our Fed has us living in.
Regardless of outcomes, market reaction should be muted ahead of next Tuesday (see paragraph 1).
Have a nice weekend.
Be well,
Mike
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