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Weekly Commentary
Economic Commentary – March 17, 2025
A consensus is growing that the first quarter’s economic growth has slowed to 1%, possibly less. As would be expected, this has taken some of the heat out of the inflation fire, making the Federal Reserve’s job considerably more straightforward (“easier” is not the word I would choose to use.) However, the effects of recent US fiscal actions— federal worker firings, spending cuts, and tariffs — have yet to play out and will be concentrated in the second quarter. Of specific interest is the imposition of tariffs, which are expected to begin to bite in April. Various administration officials and some economists have described this as a “one-time price increase” with no lasting impact on the inflation rate itself, but this somewhat naively ignores the way prices can ripple through supply chains and interrelated markets. It also overlooks consumer unhappiness with price levels, not just the rate of price increases. Nevertheless, in one sense, this view could be correct in that the most significant impact of tariffs may end up being the negative impact on employment and economic growth. As the five-year anniversary of the US Covid shutdown is observed this week, it is worth remembering that economic shocks originating in the supply side of the US economy are not well-addressed by monetary policy, though the knock-on effects may well be the Federal Reserve’s to clean up.
Data to Watch:
Suggested Reading:
Disclosure and Source
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
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