April 1, 2025 – Volatility gripped markets in the first quarter of 2025 and the major stock indices declined as chaotic U.S. trade and tariff policies caused a steep plunge in business and consumer confidence, which raised concerns that economic growth would dramatically slow and corporate earnings growth would disappoint.
Stocks started the new year by extending the declines of late 2024, as worries the Federal Reserve could pause interest rate cuts weighed on the markets early in January. However, solid economic data, encouraging inflation readings and positive commentary from Fed officials about future rate cuts pushed back on those fears and the S&P 500 recovered much of those initial losses by mid-January. Additionally, stocks rallied into and following Inauguration Day, as investors anticipated a “pro-growth” administration taking power while fears of dramatic tariffs on “Day One” of the Trump presidency went unfulfilled. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high shortly after President Trump’s inauguration and the rally continued into late January after the Fed signaled it still expected to cut rates in 2025, further calming fears of a pause in rate cuts. However, at the very end of January, investors got a preview of looming tariff/trade volatility when President Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Colombia. However, those tariffs did not ultimately materialize, so markets largely ignored them and stocks finished January with a solid gain.
Trade and tariff policy became a major influence on markets in February, however, and dramatically increased market volatility by month-end. During the first few days of February, Trump threatened and then delayed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which temporarily spiked market volatility. However, the one-month delay of those tariffs led markets to believe that Trump was using tariff threats as a negotiating tactic and that substantial tariffs would not be implemented after all. That sentiment helped to ease investor angst while economic data remained solid. Those factors combined to send the S&P 500 to a new all-time high on February 19th. However, the rally would not last. In late February consumer confidence declined dramatically and some economic reports implied the trade and tariff uncertainty was starting to slow economic growth. Those fears were reinforced when the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow turned negative, implying economic growth may be stalling. Meanwhile, tariff threats and general policy volatility continued through the end of the month and that, combined with plunging consumer sentiment, sparked a “growth scare” amongst investors that weighed on stocks and sent the S&P 500 marginally lower in February.
The market declines accelerated in March as Trump made good on his threat to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (and an additional 10% tariff on China). Although Trump delayed some of those tariffs on Mexico and Canada until early April, many other tariffs were left in place and that shattered investors’ belief that tariff threats were just a negotiating tactic. Meanwhile, several corporations from various sectors began to lower earnings guidance, citing reduced consumer spending and business investment. Those guidance cuts reinforced fears that policy uncertainty could cause an economic slowdown, and the S&P 500 fell to a six-month low. In late March, markets tried to rebound amidst a lull in tariff threats but it didn’t last as Trump announced 25% auto tariffs on March 26th, sending stocks lower once again. The S&P 500 finished the quarter at -4.59%[1].
In sum, investor optimism for a pro-growth agenda and tax cuts was replaced by rising concerns about a new global trade war and a slowing U.S. economy, as policy uncertainty and ineffective communication crushed investor and consumer confidence.
First Quarter Performance Review
Market internals revealed that while the S&P 500 logged a moderately negative return for the quarter, the declines in the index were mostly due to sharp drops in widely held technology and consumer stocks, as other parts of the market proved resilient.
To that point, on a sector level, only four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the quarter with a negative return and two of those four sectors saw only fractional declines. As mentioned, the consumer discretionary and tech sectors were, by far, the worst-performing sectors in the first quarter as both saw substantial declines. And, since those two sectors carry some of the largest weights in the S&P 500, they weighed on the overall index performance. The consumer discretionary sector was the worst performer for the quarter as it was hit by intense weakness in one of the largest consumer stocks (Tesla) combined with general concerns about lower consumer spending in the face of policy uncertainty. The technology sector was the other substantially negative performer in the first quarter as tech stocks fell following the debut of the Chinese AI program DeepSeek, which challenged assumptions about the future economic benefit of AI for major tech firms.
Second Quarter Market Outlook
Stocks begin the second quarter of 2025 following the worst quarterly performance in nearly three years and facing dual market headwinds of policy uncertainty and potentially slowing economic growth. However, while clearly markets are facing legitimate headwinds, it’s important to realize that stocks fell in the first quarter mostly on fears of what might happen in the economy, not because of what is actually happening. So, if future policy decisions and an economic slowdown aren’t as bad as currently feared, it could cause a substantial market rebound in the coming months.
Starting with trade and tariff policy, there can obviously be improvement in the communication strategy from the administration regarding its policy goals and there were signs late in the first quarter that officials realized their errors and were working to communicate more directly, effectively and consistently with markets. Regardless of what actual tariff policy ultimately looks like, improvement in communication of the administration’s policy goals will be a market positive and could help end this pullback.
Turning to economic growth, while fears of a slowdown surged in the first quarter, economic data stayed mostly resilient. Jobless claims remained subdued, measures of manufacturing and service activity showed continued expansion and the unemployment rate remained historically low, close to 4.0%. Simply put, there was little in the actual data in Q1 to imply the economy is weakening. If economic data stays solid throughout the second quarter, it will push back on those recession fears and could help fuel a rebound in the markets.
On market valuation, the declines of the first quarter have resulted in the S&P 500 trading at a more reasonable valuation compared to the start of the year, as extremely bullish investor sentiment has been replaced by a decidedly bearish outlook (which has historically set the stage for a market rebound). Bottom line, the market was richly valued at the start of the year and investor sentiment was complacent, but the volatility of the first quarter has removed both of those conditions and that is a general positive for the markets.
Finally, while the S&P 500 suffered moderate declines in the first quarter, there were many parts of the market that weathered the volatility and posted positive returns. More than half of the sectors within the S&P 500 logged positive returns in the first quarter while two other sectors only saw slight declines, underscoring that the volatility we witnessed in the first quarter didn’t result in a broad market wipeout and there are sectors and factors that can continue to outperform in this environment.
Bottom line, the first quarter did contain several negative surprises for investors and we begin the second quarter with significant uncertainty on trade policies and legitimate concerns about future economic growth. But there are also positive factors at work that should be considered, including a still-resilient economy and looming positive economic policies such as deregulation and potential tax cut extensions. So, despite depressed investor sentiment, the outlook for the economy and markets is not universally negative.
Our team at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management LLC has experienced these types of markets before and are committed to helping you effectively navigate this challenging investment environment. As I have often said, successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and through both bull and bear markets, we will remain focused on the diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals.
Therefore, it’s critical for you to stay invested, remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a unique, personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.
We remain vigilant towards risks to portfolios and the economy, and we thank you for your ongoing confidence and trust. Please rest assured that our entire team will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment.
Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions, comments, or to schedule a portfolio review.
Our clients rely on us for timely information, and our job is to deliver.
[1] Yahoo Finance!
Policy Uncertainty and Tariff Threats Create Market Volatility
John Lau
April 1, 2025 – Volatility gripped markets in the first quarter of 2025 and the major stock indices declined as chaotic U.S. trade and tariff policies caused a steep plunge in business and consumer confidence, which raised concerns that economic growth would dramatically slow and corporate earnings growth would disappoint.
Stocks started the new year by extending the declines of late 2024, as worries the Federal Reserve could pause interest rate cuts weighed on the markets early in January. However, solid economic data, encouraging inflation readings and positive commentary from Fed officials about future rate cuts pushed back on those fears and the S&P 500 recovered much of those initial losses by mid-January. Additionally, stocks rallied into and following Inauguration Day, as investors anticipated a “pro-growth” administration taking power while fears of dramatic tariffs on “Day One” of the Trump presidency went unfulfilled. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high shortly after President Trump’s inauguration and the rally continued into late January after the Fed signaled it still expected to cut rates in 2025, further calming fears of a pause in rate cuts. However, at the very end of January, investors got a preview of looming tariff/trade volatility when President Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Colombia. However, those tariffs did not ultimately materialize, so markets largely ignored them and stocks finished January with a solid gain.
Trade and tariff policy became a major influence on markets in February, however, and dramatically increased market volatility by month-end. During the first few days of February, Trump threatened and then delayed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which temporarily spiked market volatility. However, the one-month delay of those tariffs led markets to believe that Trump was using tariff threats as a negotiating tactic and that substantial tariffs would not be implemented after all. That sentiment helped to ease investor angst while economic data remained solid. Those factors combined to send the S&P 500 to a new all-time high on February 19th. However, the rally would not last. In late February consumer confidence declined dramatically and some economic reports implied the trade and tariff uncertainty was starting to slow economic growth. Those fears were reinforced when the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow turned negative, implying economic growth may be stalling. Meanwhile, tariff threats and general policy volatility continued through the end of the month and that, combined with plunging consumer sentiment, sparked a “growth scare” amongst investors that weighed on stocks and sent the S&P 500 marginally lower in February.
The market declines accelerated in March as Trump made good on his threat to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (and an additional 10% tariff on China). Although Trump delayed some of those tariffs on Mexico and Canada until early April, many other tariffs were left in place and that shattered investors’ belief that tariff threats were just a negotiating tactic. Meanwhile, several corporations from various sectors began to lower earnings guidance, citing reduced consumer spending and business investment. Those guidance cuts reinforced fears that policy uncertainty could cause an economic slowdown, and the S&P 500 fell to a six-month low. In late March, markets tried to rebound amidst a lull in tariff threats but it didn’t last as Trump announced 25% auto tariffs on March 26th, sending stocks lower once again. The S&P 500 finished the quarter at -4.59%[1].
In sum, investor optimism for a pro-growth agenda and tax cuts was replaced by rising concerns about a new global trade war and a slowing U.S. economy, as policy uncertainty and ineffective communication crushed investor and consumer confidence.
First Quarter Performance Review
Market internals revealed that while the S&P 500 logged a moderately negative return for the quarter, the declines in the index were mostly due to sharp drops in widely held technology and consumer stocks, as other parts of the market proved resilient.
To that point, on a sector level, only four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the quarter with a negative return and two of those four sectors saw only fractional declines. As mentioned, the consumer discretionary and tech sectors were, by far, the worst-performing sectors in the first quarter as both saw substantial declines. And, since those two sectors carry some of the largest weights in the S&P 500, they weighed on the overall index performance. The consumer discretionary sector was the worst performer for the quarter as it was hit by intense weakness in one of the largest consumer stocks (Tesla) combined with general concerns about lower consumer spending in the face of policy uncertainty. The technology sector was the other substantially negative performer in the first quarter as tech stocks fell following the debut of the Chinese AI program DeepSeek, which challenged assumptions about the future economic benefit of AI for major tech firms.
Second Quarter Market Outlook
Stocks begin the second quarter of 2025 following the worst quarterly performance in nearly three years and facing dual market headwinds of policy uncertainty and potentially slowing economic growth. However, while clearly markets are facing legitimate headwinds, it’s important to realize that stocks fell in the first quarter mostly on fears of what might happen in the economy, not because of what is actually happening. So, if future policy decisions and an economic slowdown aren’t as bad as currently feared, it could cause a substantial market rebound in the coming months.
Starting with trade and tariff policy, there can obviously be improvement in the communication strategy from the administration regarding its policy goals and there were signs late in the first quarter that officials realized their errors and were working to communicate more directly, effectively and consistently with markets. Regardless of what actual tariff policy ultimately looks like, improvement in communication of the administration’s policy goals will be a market positive and could help end this pullback.
Turning to economic growth, while fears of a slowdown surged in the first quarter, economic data stayed mostly resilient. Jobless claims remained subdued, measures of manufacturing and service activity showed continued expansion and the unemployment rate remained historically low, close to 4.0%. Simply put, there was little in the actual data in Q1 to imply the economy is weakening. If economic data stays solid throughout the second quarter, it will push back on those recession fears and could help fuel a rebound in the markets.
On market valuation, the declines of the first quarter have resulted in the S&P 500 trading at a more reasonable valuation compared to the start of the year, as extremely bullish investor sentiment has been replaced by a decidedly bearish outlook (which has historically set the stage for a market rebound). Bottom line, the market was richly valued at the start of the year and investor sentiment was complacent, but the volatility of the first quarter has removed both of those conditions and that is a general positive for the markets.
Finally, while the S&P 500 suffered moderate declines in the first quarter, there were many parts of the market that weathered the volatility and posted positive returns. More than half of the sectors within the S&P 500 logged positive returns in the first quarter while two other sectors only saw slight declines, underscoring that the volatility we witnessed in the first quarter didn’t result in a broad market wipeout and there are sectors and factors that can continue to outperform in this environment.
Bottom line, the first quarter did contain several negative surprises for investors and we begin the second quarter with significant uncertainty on trade policies and legitimate concerns about future economic growth. But there are also positive factors at work that should be considered, including a still-resilient economy and looming positive economic policies such as deregulation and potential tax cut extensions. So, despite depressed investor sentiment, the outlook for the economy and markets is not universally negative.
Our team at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management LLC has experienced these types of markets before and are committed to helping you effectively navigate this challenging investment environment. As I have often said, successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and through both bull and bear markets, we will remain focused on the diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals.
Therefore, it’s critical for you to stay invested, remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a unique, personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.
We remain vigilant towards risks to portfolios and the economy, and we thank you for your ongoing confidence and trust. Please rest assured that our entire team will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment.
Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions, comments, or to schedule a portfolio review.
Our clients rely on us for timely information, and our job is to deliver.
[1] Yahoo Finance!
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