Good morning,
Stocks bounced back last week; the S&P 500 Index was up +5.7% on the week, leaving it down -12.71% from its February high. Bonds did not bounce like stocks; they sold off all week as holders of all types scrambled to deleverage – 10yr Treasury yields were up +50 basis point to 4.5% (that is a massive move in bond land).
Equity markets seem to be taking comfort in the tariff deferrals on consumer electronics and other high value-added imports announced over the weekend. Futures are up +1.6% 1-hour before the opening bell. It remains unclear what the tariff schedule is going to be for all “the electronics stuff.” Still, it seems likely to be a lot lower than the 145% baseline rate on China, so the reaction is understandable. The tariff rollback on Friday and then Donald Trump’s social media posting over the weekend suggesting that nobody is getting off the hook simply adds to the confusion and does nothing for all the uncertainty and battered consumer and business confidence.
The daily sentiment indicator has reversed from extreme lows – that is a very good signal for a bounce rally that started Wednesday in stocks and likely has legs. Let’s take this one day at a time for now – see you tomorrow.
Be well,
Mike
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