RS Logo

Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary – April 14, 2025

Jeanette Garretty

It is hard to believe that not quite two weeks have passed since the world seemed to change on a dime on April 2. Much like an 8.0 magnitude earthquake, to which the Trump tariff announcements bear a considerable resemblance, a series of aftershocks continues to rattle consumers, businesses, and markets. However, unlike an earthquake, all of this is still largely unmeasurable; economic data for March can only indicate how firm the ground was before the tremblers hit, and useful April data is still weeks away. A number of Federal Reserve Presidents will be delivering speeches this week, which will be of considerable interest for the provision of insight into regional economic developments that may not have reached the national stage. Additional important economic commentary will be available later in the week if the European Central Bank, as expected, cuts interest rates yet again in the hopes of mitigating the negative effects of US tariffs. Yet the simple truth is that economists and investors must remain in wait-and-see mode as rules are rolled out, modified, paused, and possibly mitigated. “Waiting” does not mean that businesses around the country are not already feeling the effect of trade disruptions and changing prices; however, few of them have the luxury of waiting on anything. One home furnishings retailer is said to be exploring bankruptcy options, and more such stories may emerge surprisingly rapidly.  

Data to Watch:

  1. New York Federal Reserve Consumer Inflation Expectations for March, released Monday, April 14
  2. US Retail Sales for March, released Wednesday, April 16
  3. European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision, Thursday, April 17

Suggested Reading:

  1. Tim Cook’s ‘Long Arc of Time’ Prepared Apple for the Trade War
  2. So What, Exactly, Is a Recession Anyway?
  3. How Brexit, a Startling Act of Economic Self-Harm, Foreshadowed Trump’s Tariffs

Disclosure and Source

Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.

Talk To Us