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Volatility Does Mean-Revert – April 15, 2025

Mike Tierney

Good morning,

A short note this morning. Equity price action yesterday felt almost composed after the opening gap higher. The Magnificent 7 pricing faded quite a bit, but price movement was modest compared to what we’ve seen over the previous week and a half. The VIX (the uncertainty index) is down by half from its peak values last week, but at 30 this morning, it is still in the “highly uncertain” range but out of the “panic” zone of last week.

Likewise, we saw some calm return to the treasury market yesterday but with no follow through this morning. The leverage unwind that started last week and is the straw that broke the president’s resolve (90-day suspension) will likely take the rest of the week to complete but without the drama.

We’ll see, today, if the bullish sentiment reversal signal can keep the bounce rally alive. See you tomorrow. 

Be well,
Mike

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