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Volatility Inching Lower / Normal Inching Higher – April 16, 2025

Mike Tierney

Good morning,

Stocks were volatile yesterday. The VIX (volatility index) remained elevated but off a tick. Solid results from big banks lifted the S&P 500 Index up +1% at the opening bell. However those gains were wiped out on signals that the European Union and the U.S. made no progress in bridging trade differences. China ordered its airlines not to take any more deliveries from Boeing and erased hope of adding another positive day to our bounce rally. The S&P 500 closed down a smidge on the day (-.17%). Bonds rallied a little more yesterday and the dollar halted its 5-day slide, and anxiety was down.

Tariffs remain all the rage this morning. Futures are recovering some of their overnight losses as a story emerged that China is open to talks – under certain conditions. It is a start, but markets seem to think Trump is not yet ready to meet those conditions – Futures are off -.70% after the announcement which is up from down -1.5% at the lows overnight.

The market can take a break from tariffs later this afternoon when macroeconomics gets the spotlight while Jay Powell presents his economic outlook to the Economic Club of Chicago.

Be well,
Mike

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