Good morning,
Under the heading of “Careful What’s Wished For”, tariffs are not in the headlines this morning. Unfortunately, this morning’s financial markets headlines may be worse, and Donald Trump’s apparent desire to sack Jerome Powell has the dollar down, gold up, equities down, and a steeper yield curve (long-end yields up / prices down).
Whether or not the market’s reaction to no-action by the White House thus far on the Fed front is overblown remains to be seen. Illiquidity due to overnight holiday trading in Europe may support the over-reaction theory this morning – let’s hope so.
There is no calling the direction of markets in the week ahead. Fed Chair job security notwithstanding, some news of a tariff deal is anticipated. The market is up on a deal but probably slips some more on no deal. It is earnings season, and a slew of companies are reporting this week. But realistically, it’s all eyes on the White House again this week.
If markets calm just a little from the early morning spike in fear today, as I think they might, I will be back to you Wednesday for a mid-week update.
Be well,
Mike