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Slogging Into Fridays – April 25, 2025

Mike Tierney

Good morning,

Happy Friday! What a slog to get through these days. Stocks rallied, and Treasury yields fell yesterday after comments by a Federal Reserve official bolstered the still-long odds that the central bank would cut interest rates as early as June. Despite the rough start, it has been a rebound week for equities so far. The S&P 500 Index is up +3.84% thus far this week and has reduced the monthly loss there to -2.20%. Intra-April, the S&P 500 Index was, at its worst, down over 13%.

Volatility remains high, and some serious at odds narratives on China’s tariffs response may spell the end for this week’s rally. Reports from LA shipping centers that Chinese container volume is falling off a cliff explains why the White House wants as positive a spin as possible on trade talks with the Chinese. China reports that there are no talks. 

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management has set his odds of a recession at 90% and claims the retailer shelves will be Covid-like empty of Chinese made goods by May. Futures were up overnight but slipped into the red as these tidbits hit the news tape around 6am ET.

Let’s get through the day and into the weekend, where it will at least feel like they can’t hurt us anymore. I will try to cobble together a bigger picture view of markets for Monday’s Morning Note – have a relaxing weekend.

Be well,
Mike

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