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Weekly Commentary
Economic Commentary – April 28, 2025
Jeanette Garretty
This is a good week to let the data — there will be a lot of it— do the driving. And it is likely to be something of a joy ride, the trick being to buckle up and keep an eye on the month being reported. A majority of the data will continue to be backward-looking, to a March that seems now light-years distant, but employment figures for April and service sector activity in April will be headline news. The most important data point of the week will be the old news of first-quarter economic growth, newly significant because of the burning need to know how strong economic growth really was before it got whacked with the April 2 tariff announcements (and subsequent trade war with China.) A negative number for first quarter GDP is not widely expected despite the persistently negative signals from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate. Yet, a negative number is possible and will quickly galvanize everyone’s attention; a much more possible negative number for second-quarter economic growth, coupled with a negative first quarter, will signal to many a recession at hand. Complicating matters even further is the reality that significant revisions of the first “flash” estimate of quarterly GDP growth are not unknown, and the typical source of those revisions are trade flows and inventories — precisely the two areas most in flux in the second half of the first quarter.
Data to Watch:
Suggested Reading:
Disclosure and Source
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
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