Good morning,
Another busy week in the tariff headline business—including this morning at 8 am ET, when Trump said China violated its agreements with the U.S., sending Futures down -0.5%.
Now, at week’s and month’s end, we find ourselves more or less where we started. Trump’s tariffs remain in place, and businesses are no more certain about what the future holds. The equity market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, is up +1.9% this week, +6.3% for the month, and +1.1% year-to-date.
The extension period on 164 product-specific exclusions is set to expire tomorrow. Reciprocal exclusions are theoretically due to lapse on June 14. As for the China extension originally slated to end in August—your guess is as good as mine. Talks are reportedly suspended, and headline noise has taken over. Wall Street seems to be betting on a “kick-the-can” policy approach, reacting less and less to each new headline. My sense is markets may just levitate in place until we get real clarity on tariff/no-tariff policy.
A flood of government data on spending and trade hit the tape this morning. Most figures were in line with expectations, and Futures barely flinched in response.
It’s the Friday before the first official summer weekend—traders could use a quiet day. Enjoy the weekend.
Be well,
Mike