Good morning,
Welcome to June 30th — the final day of the month, the quarter, and the first half of the year. It’s also Bullet-Point Monday.
- The month, quarter, and half have all exceeded expectations that were set at the start of each period — helped in no small part by last week’s blistering gains:
S&P 500 +3.45%, Nasdaq +4.25%, Russell 2000 +3.01%, International Developed +3.11%, Emerging Markets +3.37%. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Friday, while small caps and Value-oriented indices still have ground to cover.
- Technology and Industrials are the only sectors trading at all-time highs. Seeing more sectors and indices break records would strengthen the case for the bull market’s durability.
- Risk is rising alongside prices and valuations, especially against a backdrop of persistent inflation and a slowing economy — the base case outlook from BCA Research, Ned Davis Research, DoubleLine Capital, and Apollo Capital. (More on this in this week’s Monthly Note.)
- It’s a holiday-shortened week, with the July 4th break ahead. That means the all-important monthly jobs report lands Thursday instead of Friday — potentially setting up early fireworks before the long weekend.
No Morning Note until next Monday. Wishing you a great week and an even better holiday.
Be well,
Mike
Robertson Stephens paid no fee to obtain recognition but has paid licensing fees to reference its appearances on the Newsweek, USA Today, and FA Magazine rankings lists. See Awards Disclosures
