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Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary – June 30, 2025

Jeanette Garretty

Fireworks generally start well before Fourth of July in neighborhoods around the country. This curtailed week for market-moving data is no exception. The economic cherry bombs will be in the form of employment data, which could as easily be a bust as a large and startling “Boom”.  And there will be plenty of sparklers highlighting both manufacturing and service sector activity in June. But the real sound-and-fury will be in the Senate and the House, where struggles to craft and pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (“OBBBA”) are exposing tortured logic, moral grievances, and more than a bit of outright dismay. It is highly likely that tax provisions put in place this week will require months, if not years, of clarification and ultimate modification.  And spending actions can be expected to add to a pile of reminders of the Law of Unintended Consequences. Markets, of course, are unlikely to pay as much attention to all this as the lobbyists frantically scrambling for influence; the Fourth of July holiday week is a notoriously good week for burying bad news. Thus, it may be true that this year, the biggest fireworks display will be AFTER July 4th, when a serious reading of the OBBBA is undertaken and a calculation of consequences is made.  

Data to Watch

  1. Institute of Supply Management (ISM) US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June, released Tuesday, July 1
  2. JOLTS US Job Openings and Quits data for May, released Tuesday, July 1
  3. ADP US Employment Change for June, released Wednesday, July 2
  4. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for June, released Thursday, July 3 (watch for revisions of previous months)
  5. Institutes of Supply Management (ISM) US Service Sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June, released Thursday, July 3

Suggested Reading

  1. Deep inside U.S. economy, more sticker prices start going up due to tariffs, and inventory is headed down
  2. German cabinet passes 2025 draft budget with leap in defence spending
  3. Developers Are Finally Dealing With the Office-Oversupply Problem

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