Investment Commentary Sources: Bloomberg. Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
Weekly Commentary
Investment Commentary – June 30, 2025
Stuart Katz
In the second quarter, the S&P 500 was up ~10%. The U.S. dollar has had one of its worst starts to a year on record. It is on pace to fall approximately 8% in Q2 alone. Almost every asset class is negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. To put the first half of 2025 simply, the USD was down, and almost everything else was up. The biggest winner once again from the falling USD was European assets, but even emerging market equities have caught up. U.S. equities have started to perform better and are still being driven by the momentum factor. The problem we are starting to face again (like the start of the year) is that stocks are starting to get expensive again. The forward P/E on the S&P 500 is on the brink of hitting 22x not that far (9%) from all-time high valuations reached in 1999-2000 of 24x. Amidst all the geopolitical uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and still relatively restrictive Fed, equities brushed all that off to be priced in at the highest valuations in 30 years.
Markets have rebounded from the April lows and have gone all in on risk. High beta stocks are at new all-time highs vs. low volatility stocks. Bitcoin is back near all-time highs of $108,000. The Investment Office is focused on the fundamentals. We still see a disinflationary environment being driven by housing, a decelerating growth environment (but not yet a recession), and these trends are not being picked up by markets. Instead, markets are trading as global growth is improving and there are few macro risks. We continue to like allocations to non-US stocks and quality-at-a-reasonable price in the U.S. with U.S. large, mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks. In addition, we continue to see that the bond market has yet to realize potential disinflationary forces. In our view, high quality municipal bonds continue to offer compelling income and the potential for further price returns if the economy slows further.
Disclosure and Source
Investment Commentary Sources: Bloomberg. Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
Talk To Us