RS Logo

Tariff Deadlines, Data Drops, and the Madness of Crowds – July 14, 2025

Mike Tierney

Good morning,

Market volatility remained muted last week, largely because the White House extended the 90-day tariff pause—originally set to expire last Wednesday, July 9—to August 1. That delay delivered the quote of the week: when asked, President Trump said the new deadline was “firm, but not 100% firm,” depending on negotiations. Is it any wonder the equity market seems indifferent to the tariff narrative?

Yes, futures are down 0.30% pre-market following Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff on EU goods, but that hardly reflects the real risk if those tariffs materialize.

Despite April’s “tariff tantrum,” economists surveyed by Bloomberg haven’t meaningfully revised their economic forecasts higher. The contrast between that and the equity market’s rebound is striking. This quote from Bloomberg seems particularly apt:

“The market is not the economy, and even earnings expectations—more pertinent to stocks than economic growth—only account for about half the variation in stock prices over a one-year horizon. The contribution is substantially smaller on shorter horizons. In the short run, the weight of narrative and, dare we say, the madness of crowds are more important drivers of stock prices and other market moves. If markets collectively decide that none of the background stories matter, then in the short run they won’t. But that in turn could make the final reckoning more abrupt when and if unpleasant growth and earnings surprises emerge.”

We have a data-packed week ahead. Earnings season unofficially kicks off tomorrow with results and forecasts from many of the big banks. On the economic front, CPI hits Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, Retail Sales on Thursday, and more. The list below suggests “Busy” might be an understatement.

Economic Calendar:

  • Monday (7/14): No reports
  • Tuesday (7/15): Consumer Price Index (CPI), Empire State Manufacturing
  • Wednesday (7/16): Producer Price Index (PPI), Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, MBA Mortgage Applications, EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thursday (7/17): Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Initial & Continuing Claims, Import/Export Prices, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Flows, Philadelphia Fed Index, EIA Natural Gas Inventories
  • Friday (7/18): Building Permits, Housing Starts, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Key Earnings Releases:

  • Monday (7/14): Fastenal (FAST), FB Financial (FBK), Equity Bancshares (EQBK), Barnes & Noble Education (BNED), Simulations Plus (SLP)
  • Tuesday (7/15): JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), BNY Mellon (BK), State Street (STT), JB Hunt (JBHT), Omnicom (OMC), Pinnacle Financial (PNFP)
  • Wednesday (7/16): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), ASML (ASML), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Progressive (PGR), Prologis (PLD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Airlines (UAL), Alcoa (AA)
  • Thursday (7/17): TSMC (TSM), GE Aerospace (GE), Novartis (NVS), Abbott Labs (ABT), PepsiCo (PEP), Cintas (CTAS), Elevance Health (ELV), US Bancorp (USB), Travelers (TRV), Netflix (NFLX), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Western Alliance (WAL), Bank OZK (OZK)
  • Friday (7/18): American Express (AXP), Charles Schwab (SCHW), 3M (MMM), Truist Financial (TFC), Schlumberger (SLB), Regions Financial (RF), Ally Financial (ALLY), Comerica (CMA)

And before we get to any of that, President Trump has promised a “major statement” on Russia this morning.

Be well,
Mike

Disclosure and Source

Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Performance may be compared to several indices. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. A complete list of Robertson Stephens Investment Office recommendations over the previous 12 months is available upon request. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.

Talk To Us