Good morning,
There are always buyers and sellers in capital markets; bulls and bears. We’ve outlined the key risks for the back half of 2025 in recent Morning Notes and the Monthly Letter. The prevailing concern remains a “stagflation-lite” scenario—moderating growth that still trends positive, paired with persistent inflation pressures. In short, incremental shifts in both growth and inflation, with a mild recession risk looming in the background. If the bear case is to gain traction, we expect the first signs to emerge in hard economic data over the coming months.
So far this week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up +0.61% and +1.46% respectively, both setting new record highs. Economic data has shown no signs of weakening: June CPI, Retail Sales, and Weekly Jobless Claims all came in better than expected—signaling lower inflation and a resilient labor market. These reports further justify the Fed’s pause this month and reinforce the growing likelihood of a September rate cut.
The bullish case leans heavily on a trifecta: continued disinflation, economic resilience, and tech-led market momentum—all of which received a shot in the arm this week.
Be well,
Mike
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