Good morning,
Summer delivers more weeks of market doldrums than the other three seasons combined, and this week is shaping up to be this year’s first example. Relative to next week, this one may feel like the calm before the storm, as next week is loaded with macro risk events, including the Fed meeting, U.S. Q2 GDP, the tariff deadline, and July employment numbers. We’ll also hear from the majority of the Mag-7 companies to boot.
This week, by contrast, offers little in the way of economic data—no key releases to speak of. It is the second week of earnings season. Still, while roughly 400 companies are scheduled to report, only a couple—namely Alphabet and Tesla—are likely to command much attention among the 42 listed names.
Beyond the quiet calendar, there’s a growing sense of impatience across the market. We’ve noted the bears’ frustration with the delay in hard data deterioration (still expected in the back half of the year), but anxiety appears to be rising on the bullish side as well. The S&P 500 Index has now gone 17 consecutive sessions without a 1% move in either direction—the longest such stretch in eight months. That reflects a slowdown in momentum after the sharp rebound from April’s tariff tantrum.
Some bulls are beginning to worry about price action among stocks trading near highs that subsequently fall post-earnings—regardless of results. A few early signs have emerged with big banks and Netflix, both of which delivered “beat and raise” quarters yet saw selling pressure. It’s too early to call it a trend, but worth watching this week.
See you Friday—have a great week ahead.
Be well,
Mike