Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
Weekly Commentary
Economic Commentary – August 4, 2025
Jeanette Garretty
The flood of economic data last week measured up to all expectations — and probably exceeded more than a few. Collectively, the data painted a picture that most people had already sketched out, one of slowing economic growth, some upward pressure on prices, and a Federal Reserve facing murky uncertainties. Even if the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve had had the inflation and employment numbers in hand before the interest rate decision on Wednesday, it is unlikely that there would have been a different decision, although no doubt the debate would have been even more lively. Chairman Powell and others regularly and correctly observe that one month’s data does not make a trend. Of course, this thought immediately leads to the elephant that has now been brought into the room: the accuracy and timeliness of the data and its susceptibility to manipulation. With respect to US employment and the health of the labor market in general, there are a number of resources available to the Fed and others on a monthly or near-monthly basis that can provide a good information when analyzed in conjunction with each other: The ADP monthly employment report, the S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Indices (there is an employment sub-measure), the Fed “Beige Book”, etc. Inflation measures are somewhat harder to validate with independent, private sector sources. —the Consumer Price Index is also compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — yet the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index which is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Fed “Beige Book” and the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) Survey offer useful insight into the direction of prices. In truth, the refinement of monetary policy at this particular juncture in the US economic expansion was always going to require much more than just one piece of data, no matter how highly visible, and lots of investment in the “educated” part of educated guess-making.
Data to Watch
Suggested Reading
Disclosure and Source
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
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