The Economy
In July 2025, the U.S. economy saw a dramatic slowdown in job growth, a bump in inflationary pressures due to tariffs, and a rebound in GDP following a weak first quarter. The economy added only 73,000 jobs, below the expected 115,000. This slowdown was driven by reduced hiring in manufacturing and construction, partly due to trade uncertainties and changing immigration policies. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in June. Inflation, on the whole, remained on a downward trend despite tariffs, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month in June, bringing the annual rate to 2.7%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.9% year-over-year. The increase was driven by higher prices for imported goods, which were impacted by tariffs. The U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed to $86.0 billion in June, down from $96.4 billion in May, mainly due to a 4.2% drop in imports as trade continued to normalize. Exports saw a slight 0.4% decline.
The economy grew by 3.0% in Q2 2025, recovering from a 0.5% contraction in Q1. This growth was driven by strong consumer spending and a temporary dip in imports ahead of tariffs, though demand remained weak, with final sales rising only 1.2%. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% during its July 30 meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s focus on achieving maximum employment and price stability. He acknowledged the short-term inflationary effects of tariffs but cautioned against rate cuts that could undermine progress. The decision sparked dissent, with Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman calling for cuts due to weakening labor market conditions.
Looking ahead, the U.S. economy shows definite signs of stalling, with slower job growth and below-trend final demand. While the GDP rebound suggests some resilience, underlying demand remains soft. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rates reflects its effort to balance growth with inflation risks. The labor market and trade policy will be key in shaping the economic outlook and determining whether the Fed will deliver the rate cuts the market expects in September.
The Markets
July 2025 delivered another strong month for equity markets as investors looked past policy noise and leaned into solid earnings growth for the second consecutive quarter. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, marking its 14th record close of the year, while the Nasdaq rose 3.7% to notch its 15th. Developed international markets were flat overall, with Japan outperforming thanks to export strength and strong corporate profits, while Europe lagged amid weak industrial output and sticky inflation. Emerging markets advanced 2.5%, led by gains in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, offsetting weakness in Latin American markets.
Fixed income markets were mixed. Long-end Treasury yields drifted lower—the 30-year fell 8 basis points to 4.94%—while the 2-year settled at 3.88%. Municipals outperformed due to favorable seasonal flows, and high-yield issuance remained robust, with $123 billion in volume in the first half of the year. The real driver of July’s rally, however, was earnings: S&P 500 Q2 blended earnings growth hit 10%, with strong showings in Tech, Financials, and Communications. Notably, 82% of companies beat EPS expectations, well above historical averages, and analysts now forecast full-year 2025 earnings growth of 9.9%—a backdrop that continues to support equity valuations.
The key takeaway? The market continues to reward fundamentals. Earnings are strong, inflation is easing, and despite geopolitical noise and lingering rate fears, equities are climbing the wall of worry. History tells us that staying invested during periods of uncertainty pays off. July was another reminder of why disciplined, long-term investing remains the smartest path forward.
Wealth Planning
“Trump Account” for Babies Born Between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028
One new provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) is the new child savings accounts, which are going to be called the Trump Account. This account is a tax-deferred investment vehicle that will be seeded with $1,000 and will track a U.S index fund. The funds will not be available until the child turns 18 years old. This government contribution is available for every U.S. citizen who has a social security number.
Investments will be allocated to low-cost index funds, offering the potential for long-term capital growth. Accounts are held until the child turns 18, at which point, if there is a withdrawal, there will be an early withdrawal penalty unless the withdrawal falls under an exception. Exceptions are available for first-time home purchases (limited to $10,000) and college tuition. More on college tuition below.
These Trump Accounts could get more complicated beginning in 2027, when a total of $5,000 annually can be contributed by parents/grandparents, and even employers can contribute up to $2,500. This is all after tax dollars. Suppose a newborn today holds this account until age 60 and never makes a withdrawal, but his parents made a total of $10,000 in after-tax contributions. The calculation to determine what is taxable and what is not for a withdrawal is going to be tricky.
A better option might be to never fund the Trump account with your after-tax money. Instead, you might want to overfund your child’s 529 plan when the child is young – no more than five years old. These plans can be used for college and, in some states, can be used for K through 12th grade private school education. Additionally, excess funds can be used to fund a Roth IRA when this young adult is earning income. Annual limits are $7,000 with a maximum rollover limit of $35,000 per designated beneficiary (i.e., your child or grandchild).
When it comes time to consider this 529 to Roth IRA conversion, please reach out to your CPA/tax advisor, as this law could change.