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Stocks Surge on Earnings Optimism—Inflation Data Up Next – August 11, 2025

Mike Tierney

Good morning,

Stocks logged their best weekly gain of the summer last week, with the S&P 500 up 2.44% and the Nasdaq climbing 3.88%, as strong earnings outweighed the prior week’s weak employment report. The recent concentrated melt-up in equities appears driven by optimism over economic growth tied to heavy investment in AI and onshoring in the U.S. under new trade policies. Q2 earnings have largely reinforced that narrative—aside from some consumer-facing names. While the full impact of recently imposed higher tariff rates has yet to filter through—and the ultimate economic effect remains unclear—investors seem content to wait for confirmation in the hard data.

This week brings key inflation readings—CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday—along with a fresh look at consumer health via Friday’s Retail Sales report. A few notable earnings remain on deck (CSCO, AMAT, DE, CRWV, among others). Most of the week’s market swings are likely to hinge on the inflation data and how it shapes rate-cut expectations by the Fed.

I’ll be out midweek with my monthly note, examining why market indicators are deteriorating despite new index highs—and what that could signal ahead.

Be well,
Mike

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