Good morning,
Markets drifted last week but managed to hold modest gains despite conflicting inflation signals. The S&P 500 ended up +0.94% after digesting a heavy flow of economic data, particularly the divergent CPI and PPI reports.
This week is shaping up to be one of watching and waiting. The U.S. macro calendar is light, but investors will focus on Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole conference. While not a policy-setting forum, the Fed chair often hints at the path ahead. Given the rally in both stocks and bonds, markets seem eager for confirmation that rate cuts are near—but if expectations are running ahead of the Fed, Powell may disappoint on Friday (10 am ET).
Beyond that, headlines from the White House—today’s Ukraine meeting or further tariff talk—remain part of the daily backdrop. For now, markets appear largely desensitized to tariff announcements, given their frequent revisions and the lack of clear evidence of economic impact so far.
With Labor Day two weeks away and summer winding down, I’ll be on semi-holiday and will send the next Morning Note a week from today.
Be well,
Mike