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Equity Market Walks a Goldilocks Tightrope – September 12, 2025

Mike Tierney

Good morning,

​​​​​Due to my own miscalculation (mostly the hangover-like state from TKR), I don’t have August’s monthly letter ready for you this morning—even as September is already half past. The primary delay has been my desire to incorporate insights from yesterday’s Ned Davis Research special webcast, “Secular Bull Market Intact, Secular Bear Risk Rising.” It was as worthwhile as I expected, and I’ll distill its key takeaways for you over the weekend.

Recapping this week so far: yesterday’s most anticipated event was the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the data showed inflation remains sticky, it was overshadowed by a sharply higher weekly unemployment number, released simultaneously. Markets reacted strongly—equities jumped across the board (S&P 500 Index +0.85% on the day, hitting a new high), while bonds rallied. Yields declining on weaker growth data make sense, but equities rising at the same time underscore just how delicately markets are threading the needle. Investors are betting on a “Goldilocks” scenario—growth slowing enough to justify rate cuts beginning next week, but not enough to tip us into recession.

This morning’s early trading is more subdued (futures –0.10%), and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some profit-taking ahead of the weekend and the upcoming Fed meeting.

See you Monday—have a good weekend. 

Be well,
Mike

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