Good morning,
As promised, my monthly letter was completed over the weekend, though it’s still tied up in publishing. You’ll receive it later today once compliance gives the green light. I’m sure this sets some sort of record—and not the kind I’d brag about.
It’s Fed week, with Wednesday’s rate decision and dot plot (the Fed’s projection of future cuts) commanding everyone’s attention both before and after the announcement. A 25-basis-point cut appears locked in, barring any surprise leaks from the Chair—which, while not unprecedented, seems unlikely this time.
Markets remain in “melt-up” mode, fueled by the massive AI investment cycle and the growing expectation of Fed easing. Despite historically stretched valuations and lingering uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, investors are leaning heavily on the old adage: “don’t fight the Fed.”
Looking past this week, the risk of a government shutdown looms at the end of the month. Historically, shutdowns have had only minor, temporary impacts on equities and the economy. But this time could prove more disruptive given the slowing payroll growth and heightened policy uncertainty. Ironically, the increased risk of a shutdown could also strengthen the case for resuming or accelerating rate cuts. Either way, investors may need to brace for a volatility spike as September winds down.
Be well,
Mike