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Don’t Fight the Tape, Don’t Fight the Fed As Risks Build – September 22, 2025

Good morning,

All the major equity indices posted fresh all-time highs last week as the Fed officially launched its easing cycle, confirming expectations of a 25 bps rate cut at each of the final three meetings this year. In market shorthand: the tape is strong, and the Fed is easing. Investors appear to be embracing the first two rules of investing: Don’t fight the tape and Don’t fight the Fed.

Still, historically high valuations make this a challenging environment for risk managers. Choose your analogy—stretched rubber bands, popping balloons, or sparks igniting volatile fumes—this melt-up will eventually end. The question is when. For now, sentiment is not excessively bullish, and the tape/Fed signal remains significant.

This week brings little in the way of new data, so attention will soon shift toward the spending bill aimed at avoiding a government shutdown at month’s end. While this could introduce some volatility, it seems unlikely to be the catalyst that bursts the balloon.

Be well,
Mike

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