Good morning,
It’s CPI Friday — wait, what? A key inflation data point from a shutdown government agency? Good question. Even though the federal government remains in a partial shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) still released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this morning.
Here’s why: under the shutdown, many federal agencies suspend non-essential operations. However, most of the data for September’s CPI were already collected before the shutdown took effect, allowing the BLS to compile the report with a small staff recall. Importantly, the September CPI determines the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits. Because the COLA has statutory deadlines, the CPI release was deemed an exception despite the funding lapse.
With a big U.S. data release landing on a Friday morning, it almost felt like a payroll day. For much of the past few years, CPI has shared top billing with labor-market data in shaping asset prices, though that influence has waned lately as the Fed’s attention drifts toward a stagnating job market. With both October and December rate cuts now priced in as near-certainties, markets seem convinced the Fed will keep cutting no matter what.
CPI rose +0.3% vs. +0.4% expected. The softer-than-expected inflation print should clear any remaining objections to a rate cut next week — and likely embolden the Fed’s dovish camp.
Be well,
Mike
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