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Weekly Commentary

Economic Commentary – October 27, 2025

It’s back to Trump Time, it’s Trade Time, All The Time. A successful tour of Asia to negotiate favorable trade deals would go a long way toward easing the concerns of the Federal Reserve — and the US business community — about the negative impacts on economic growth from trade confrontation. There is also the issue of price pressures from the ongoing use of retaliatory tariffs, especially the sudden imposition of a 10% tariff increase on products from the US’s second-largest trading partner, Canada. However, as has been discovered time and again over the past 10 months, the actual economic effects of any of these announcements will not be immediately apparent. With key decisions on interest rates and monetary policy looming, the Federal Reserve is left to focus on employment that is not well measured and an inflation number that (if accurate) continues to creep upwards.

Data to Watch

  1. Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October, released Tuesday, October 28
  2. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision and Chairman Powell Press Conference, Wednesday, October 29
  3. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, released Friday, October 31
  4. US Personal Income and Personal Spending for September, released Friday, October 31

Suggested Reading

  1. Trump port fees slap shipper with $34 million tariff bill: ‘They are showing us the door,’ says shocked U.S. freight CEO
  2. The Next Economic Bubble Is Here
  3. Trump Reaches Trade Pacts With Southeast Asian Nations

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