Good morning,
Happy Halloween—and welcome to the month’s end and the weekend. So far, the week has not disappointed expectations of being one of the busiest as we head toward year-end.
The Fed enigmatically enacted a hawkish rate cut, and the probability of another cut in December has now been halved to 50%. The China tariff conundrum appears to be settled—though, as always, that remains to be seen. Five of the “Magnificent Seven” reported earnings this week, with results that were as mixed as imaginable.
After all that crosscurrent, the S&P 500 Index has managed a modest +0.45% gain for the week through last night’s close. But as is often the case, the final headline carries the tape—Amazon posted blowout numbers after the close last night, driven largely by its AI division. Futures are up +0.90% at 8 a.m. ET this morning. Net-net: AI continues to be the primary driver of this bull market.
For month-end trading today, there’s no clear tilt toward equities or fixed income from an asset-allocation perspective. Ordinarily, we’d get PCE data today, but not during the ongoing government shutdown.
And on a lighter note, we don’t even have to remember to set our clocks back tomorrow night—Apple (or a facsimile thereof) will handle that for us automatically.
Have a great weekend and see you Monday.
Be well,
Mike