Pattern Recognition Ends Patterns – November 17, 2025
Good morning, Last Friday’s sharp mid-day rebound erased a weak opening, leaving the S&P 500 essentially flat for the day (-0.05%) and for the week (-0.07%). The now-familiar pattern of early-week strength followed by late-week weakness held once again—and will be tested today. The S&P 500 has posted gains on nine consecutive Mondays. As of […]
Holiday Estate Planning Conversations: How to Share Your Plan With Family
It’s that time of year again! The holidays give many families a chance to gather in one place, creating an opportunity to have conversations about the future. Even a small step now – sharing your thoughts on aging, care, or estate plans – could help prevent confusion, conflict, or stress down the road for your […]
Hawkish Fed, Weakening Labor Data, and Markets Pushing Cuts to 2026
Executive Summary The recent odds of a December cut have been going down to 44% and a 56% chance of a hold. With that said, there are now three cuts priced into 2026, so the bond market more or less is pushing out the rate cut into next year. Regardless, the Fed is becoming increasingly […]
A Flood of Delayed Data Could Cloud the Economic Picture
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) probably haven’t felt quite this warmly welcomed in a very long time. Memories of various proposals to eliminate or sharply curtail reports on prices and labor markets (as recently as August), have been forgotten in the hot anticipation of sorely missed economic data […]