RS Logo

Gap Up, Fall Down—An Unnerving Market Pattern – November 21, 2025

Good morning,

That was strange… Yesterday’s gap-opening rally—sparked, at least in theory, by another NVDA earnings beat Wednesday night—initially pushed the S&P 500 up as much as +1.9%. Then, almost inexplicably, the market went into a free fall, sliding roughly 3.5% from its intra-day peak to finish the day down -1.55%.

I’m not entirely sure what it means, frankly. But experience has taught me to distrust markets that fall seemingly of their own accord, without an obvious catalyst. Financial media will, of course, rush to assign reasons—news must fill airtime—but take it with a grain of salt.

Gap-up openings followed by sharp reversals are rare. Historical data show only 14 such occurrences, eight of which clustered between October 2008 and March 2009. The most recent was earlier this year during the so-called “Tariff Tantrum” (Bloomberg). History, at least for now, isn’t siding with the bulls.

I’ll dig deeper into what’s behind the move and share more next week – for now, I am instinctively defensive.

Have a great weekend.

Be well,
Mike

Disclosure and Source

Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any Investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Performance may be compared to several indices. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. A complete list of Robertson Stephens Investment Office recommendations over the previous 12 months is available upon request. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are only available to qualified investors and are not suitable for all investors. Alternative investments include risks such as illiquidity, long time horizons, reduced transparency, and significant loss of principal. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2025 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.

Talk To Us